Yes, the increased bunker demand was what I was getting at, as that is a potential macro-economic factor larger than the shipping impact, imho...although both could put a floor under goods inflation.
Like other commentators, you focus on the extended voyage times, and what some call a 'one-off' inflation effect through delay. longer voyages will cost more as the days afloat increase - but what about the fuel consumed in the journey?
That is a factor, as is the additional crew wages and maintenance that will be required.
Shipping analysts have concluded that the overall costs will not increase by a huge amount in net terms due to it being largely cancelled out by not having to pay the Suez Canal transit fee.
However, that is based upon fuel being adaquately available where its needed. If inclement weather forces more consumption around the Cape of Good Hope, then that could complicate local bunker fuel costs, as I somewhat alluded to in the article.
Another factor I didnt include because the article was already long enough was the impact on this additional demand on oil prices.
In an analysis in late December, Bloomberg concluded it could increase global consumption by up to 500k barrels a day.
Since bulkers, tankers and LNG carriers have been added to those diverting, the increase in global oil consumption may becomes even more significant.
Yes, the increased bunker demand was what I was getting at, as that is a potential macro-economic factor larger than the shipping impact, imho...although both could put a floor under goods inflation.
Like other commentators, you focus on the extended voyage times, and what some call a 'one-off' inflation effect through delay. longer voyages will cost more as the days afloat increase - but what about the fuel consumed in the journey?
this is bound to increase also.
That is a factor, as is the additional crew wages and maintenance that will be required.
Shipping analysts have concluded that the overall costs will not increase by a huge amount in net terms due to it being largely cancelled out by not having to pay the Suez Canal transit fee.
However, that is based upon fuel being adaquately available where its needed. If inclement weather forces more consumption around the Cape of Good Hope, then that could complicate local bunker fuel costs, as I somewhat alluded to in the article.
Another factor I didnt include because the article was already long enough was the impact on this additional demand on oil prices.
In an analysis in late December, Bloomberg concluded it could increase global consumption by up to 500k barrels a day.
Since bulkers, tankers and LNG carriers have been added to those diverting, the increase in global oil consumption may becomes even more significant.